By Josh Rains,

Managing Director, Landmark Geodata

As the UK enters a new era of policy reform, the planning landscape stands on the cusp of significant transformation. Against this backdrop of legislative change and shifting priorities, the future of development – both residential and commercial – presents fresh opportunities and pressing challenges alike.

Here, we explore the evolving complexities offer insights into what the coming months and years may hold for planners, developers, and communities navigating a rapidly changing terrain.

2024 was a lean year for planning applications

The planning landscape has changed dramatically in recent years. The new government’s wide-ranging programme of planning reforms have led to an unpicking of planning processes, with the revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and the Planning and Infrastructure Bill seeking to streamline planning decisions.

However, expanding the nation’s housing stock at speed and scale will be a considerable challenge. Our latest planning insights data shows that 2024 was a lean year for planning applications. In fact, it was the least active year for the number of planning applications submitted per 100,000 people across virtually every region since our records began in 2012.

Total planning applications across the UK, at just over 690,000, were at their lowest since 2012 (685,000), while the nationwide average of 1,045 planning applications per 100,000 nationwide is the lowest we have on record.

The forecast looking ahead

Looking ahead, there is a likelihood we’ll see continued investment and activity in the larger planning sphere, with a particular focus on strategic site availability in the earliest parts of planning. This growth could come in the form of multiple dwellings, large sites, and lined parcels.

Running parallel to this, we may see a prolonged continuation of lower activity in the smaller residential planning space. To a large degree, this is economy based, and until there is cash for people to spend, home improvement and single dwelling type planning applications are less likely to materialise in any great numbers.

As the implementation of Grey Belt becomes more established within the planning system, we may see more speculative applications emerge moving forward. This might be a case of testing the water by re-submitting applications for existing sites that may have been previously written off at the feasibility stage. We may also see more objections to previous decisions.

In the commercial planning sector, we could see a focus on change of use, such as offices to residential dwellings or even data centres. However, this will largely be driven by return-to-work policies. Data centres are an area that could experience a dramatic uptick due to investment in AI. These are likely to be mainly focused in the South East, where demand is greatest.

Shifting the decision-making process earlier

When it comes to leveraging geospatial data, land and property leads the way. The role of geospatial data in this scenario is all about shifting the decision-making process earlier, whether that be through site feasibility or in assessing future potential. Geospatial data enables faster, more efficient decision making earlier in the planning process, when the ability to change is high and the cost to change is low.

Data’s ability to predict future models could drive investment decisions beyond the policy changes we expect to see over the next government term. Allied with professional expertise, data has the potential to inform long-term decisions based around climate and environmental risks, encompassing scenarios spanning the next 50 to 100 years.

In the shorter term, policy changes are likely to make the choice between urban expansion versus the creation of new towns more nuanced. The evolving role of the Green Belt, and the interpretation of Grey Belt land, will be intriguing. We cannot predict for certain how the next 12 months will play out, but one thing we can say with great certainty is that it’s likely to be a fascinating time for the entire planning space.

Explore the trends in more detail in our report. Download it here: https://hubs.la/Q03Cjh510